IDEAL Monthly Economic Rundown and Outlook: October Edition

For a third consecutive month, the country saw a general increase in price levels. Following a 1.1% and 0.8% increase in price levels in July and August, them Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month over month (MoM). Accordingly, the country’s point to point inflation stood at 3.4% as at the end of September from 4.1% relative to the end of the previous month. Comparatively, at this point in 2018, the country’s month over month inflation and point to point inflation was recorded at 1.11% and 4.33%, respectively.

Inflation

For a third consecutive month, the country saw a general increase in price levels. Following a 1.1% and 0.8% increase in price levels in July and August, them Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month over month (MoM). Accordingly, the country’s point to point inflation stood at 3.4% as at the end of September from 4.1% relative to the end of the previous month. Comparatively, at this point in 2018, the country’s month over month inflation and point to point inflation was recorded at 1.11% and 4.33%, respectively.

Foreign Exchange & Net International Reserves

The country’s Net mInternational Reserves (NIR) expanded for asecond consecutive month to a year to date high. As at the end of October, the country’s NIR closed at US$3.17B, increasing by 2.31%, or US$0.07B, relative to September’s closing NIR. The improvement in the country’s NIR was due to an overall growth in Foreign Assets. Consequently, Jamaica’s NIR continues to float well above the international benchmark which recommends sufficient reserves to cover at least 12 weeks of importation of goods and services.

Fiscal Standing

As at September 30, 2019, the Ministry of Finance reported a Primary balance of J$80.67B, outperforming the budgeted J$75.04B for the period, by 7.5%, or J$5.63B. During the same period, the Government collected a total of J$313.95B in revenue and grants, surpassing budgetary estimates by 1.2%, or J$3.58B. Expenditures for the fiscal year remains below budget with a positive variance of 1.5%, with the Government expended only J$299.55B of the budgeted J$304.23B.

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